by Major David E. Smith USMC
My first conclusion is that there is no evidence today of a
worldwide terrorist training apparatus. This is because there is no
nation, or block of nations, with both the resources and the belief
that its political goals will be furthered by a coordinated global
terrorist assault against an opposing camp. The world has fractured
into a number of competing alliances and factions, each attempting to
further its own ends. This has resulted in terrorist training
cooperation along regional, ethnic and religious lines.
A second conclusion is that the training techniques for the
majority of terrorist organizations exhibit many similarities. The
first and most important is that ideology is paramount. Political or
religious indoctrination is stressed by everyone from Marighella to
Islamic fundamentalists. Terrorists from most movements must
demonstrate ability and loyalty by performing simple tasks prior to
being trained for more difficult assignments. Hence, as we have
seen, Sendero recruits begin by painting graffiti while PIRA initial
instruction is designed to build confidence rather than technical
ability. Additionally, most groups have a small number of trained
key personnel supported by many more less specialized members.
In l985 the British Army estimated the PIRA relied on only four or
five master explosives experts.66 Finally, all groups are moving
towards weapons and tactics that are increasingly sophisticated and
deadly. Their level of violence is increasing, perhaps because the
world has become immune to "routine" bombings and shootings.
Past patterns and current developments point to several
trends during the next ten years. First, Islamic fundamentalism will
increase rather than wane, and it will be accompanied by continued
cooperation in training among militant Islamic cliques. Algeria and
Egypt will be subject to increased fundamentalist violence, and
religion will have a greater appeal to the poor masses of those
nations than their governments will. Continued Shia-Sunni, Iranian-
Sudanese concord will be particularly crucial to support terrorist
organizations in North Africa and the Middle East. There is every
indication that radical Sunni Islam is on the ascent.67 The increased
immigration of Muslims to the United States will facilitate
fundamentalist terrorist actions being conducted here in the same
way they made it easier to operate in Europe.
Marxist groups will continue to decline because of the failure of
communism in the former Soviet Union and general disillusionment
with its philosophy. The remnants of those organizations have been
deprived of their former East European safe havens. More
importantly, they have lost their former popular support above and
below ground. Without their support infrastructures these groups
will eventually fade away.
Another future trend will be increased participation in the
political process by wings of terrorist organizations. Sinn Fein and
the PIRA demonstrated how potent the terrorist political/military
combination could be. They were emulated by the Basque ETA
whose political wing, Herri Batasuna, generally draws l5 to l7
percent of the votes in the Basque region of north Spain.6 s Several
Middle Eastern groups have entered the political arena. Hizballah
has recently ventured forth into mainstream Lebanese politics and
fundamentalist Islamic groups have attained political successes in
Turkey and Algeria. The political trend is also surfacing in South
America where the Patriotic Union has pursued the interests of the
State-supported terrorism will remain common. This is because
terrorism pays. Nations do not need to invest a great deal of
resources to assist a terrorist organization, and can gain great
negotiating power when it is presumed that they can influence the
activities of certain movements. Terrorism is a particularly effective
means of confronting the United States. Saddam Hussein challenged
the United States conventionally and was decisively defeated. Iran
challenges us constantly through her surrogates and has not suffered
significantly for it. State sponsors of terrorism will be more wary of
the groups they aid, and will increase their efforts to infiltrate and
influence them, intensifying their attempts at agent recruitment
during training. They will increasingly try to guarantee that the
recipients of their assistance do not turn against them.
Ethnic and religious movements will perpetuate as the world
proceeds to evolve after the demise of the former Soviet Union.
Repressed minorities that were held in place by oppressive
communist regimes will struggle for national identity, and faced with
overcoming more heavily armed governments, will resort to
Surviving ethnic/nationalist groups operating in hostile territory
will become much more sophisticated as counter terrorist efforts
increase in effectiveness and expertise. "Survival of the fittest" will
be the rule; groups will either adapt or perish. Organizations that
are able to operate from territory controlled by their sponsors, such
as Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley, will not need to adapt as radically
to persevere. Terrorist groups may take a vested interest in
maintaining their safe havens and may deliberately attempt to
undermine the political, military, or diplomatic efforts of their
sponsors that could threaten them.
Alliances between terrorists and criminals are already a matter of
grave concern. The line separating terrorist organizations and
criminal enterprises has become indistinct, and may be more vague
in the future. The Irish Republican Army and the Loyalist
paramilitaries illustrate groups that risk significant financial loss if
there is a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
Protracted struggle lends an air of legitimacy to their local extortion
and racketeering operations. The growing worldwide appetite for
illegal narcotics will provide even greater incentives for alliances
between narcotics producers/distributors and indigenous terrorist
bands. The amount of money Peruvian and Colombian terror
organizations can extort from narcotics traffickers is staggering.
Many drug lords pay terrorists $l5,OOO per flight in or out of
protected runways.70 Police in Lima, Peru believe Sendero Luminoso
has accumulated $4O million, largely from runway "landing fees" .71
Future terrorists will continue to exploit publications that provide
instruction in useful techniques. Military manuals are common,
easily understood, and readily reproduced. The Anarchist's
Cookbook and publications such as the PIRA's Green Book
supplement those documents. Active duty or reserve military
training provides a background of experience that terrorists will
continue to tap as members of action teams and instructors. The
Former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact have generated thousands of
dispossessed military commissioned and noncommissioned officers
who could conceivably be enticed to provide mercenary instruction.
The combination of profits from illegal undertakings, in conjunction
with an available pool of experienced instructors, could lead to
enhanced training for members of financially unconstrained
movements. In addition to individual instructors, corporations may
offer training to terrorist organizations. Israel's Hod Hohonit Security
Firm was investigated for training Colombian drug cartel
Many terrorists will continue to learn their initial skills while
serving periods of incarceration. John Stephenson (a.k.a. Sean
MacStiofain) of the Provisional IRA learned terrorist techniques from
Greek Cypriot inmates while serving a sentence at the Wormwood
Scrubbs Prison.73 Increased apprehension and sentencing of
terrorists to institutions where they mix with other convicted
criminals will provide them with a fertile recruiting ground, and a
violent and largely dispossessed audience for instruction/exchange of
Terrorists will also avail themselves of advances in technology to
further their aims and enhance their training. John Maxwell Oliphant
developed a bomb making video for distribution to Aryan groups in
the United States.74 The Internet and other computer systems
provide a superb medium for spreading global propaganda.
Worldwide mobile communications systems provide the means for
coordinating training and operational planning across great distances.
In the long run, Soviet orchestration of international terrorist
training might seem like "the good old days", since Moscow exerted a
moderating influence on movements it supported, and historically
did not promote actions against United States territory. Today's
Islamic Fundamentalists will be less likely to refrain from attacks on
our soil (as we have seen with the World Trade Center Bombing).
That lack of restraint, with more advanced and lethal munitions, to
include weapons of mass destruction (as evidenced in Tokyo), will
exemplify the character of future terrorist operations.
MAPS Map One: Simferopol and Baku
Map Two: Plauen, Karl Marx Stadt, and Dresden
Map Three: Babelsberg and Kleinmachnow (Klein Machsrow)
Map Four: Varna
Map Five: Al Bayda (Al-Beida), Surt (Sirte), and Tukrah (Tokra)
Map Six: Baktia (PaktikaIPaktia), Jalabad, and Peshawar
Map Seven: Wadi Seidna (Wadi Saydna)
l. Karl A. Segar, The Antiterrorism Handbook (Novato: Presidio Press), 6-1l.
2. David Segal, "Tehran's Terror Czar: Sayeed Ali Akbar Mohtashemi," Counterterrorism and Security Affairs, Winter l989-9O, l4- l7.
3. Segar, 4-6.
4. Eileen MacDonald, Shoot the Women First (New York: Random House), 47.
5. Joseph S. Bermudez, Terrorism, the North Korean Connection (New York: Taylor & Francis), l47.
6. MacDonald, 33-62.
7. Christopher Dobson and Ronald Payne, The Terrorists, Their Weapons, Leaders and Tactics (New York: Facts on File Publications), l2- l3.
8. Segar, 44-45.
9. Michael Connor, Terrorism, Its Goals, Its Targets, Its Methods (Boulder: Paladin Press), 22-26.
10. Connor, 27.
ll. Dobson and Payne, (The Terrorists), 7-8.
l2. Dobson and Payne, (The Terrorists), l3O-l3l.
l3. Roger W. Fontaine, Terrorism: The Cuban Connection (New York, Philadelphia, London: Crane Russack & Company), 36-37.
l4. Claire Sterling, The Terror Network (New York: Reader's Digest Press), l4.
l5. Christopher Dobson and Ronald Payne, The Carlos Complex A Study in Terror (New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons), 33-34.
l6. Sterling, 253-254.
l7. Sterling, 255.
l8. Sterling, 255-256.
l9. Stephen Segaller, Invisible Armies Terrorism into the 199O's (San Diego, New York, London: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, Publishers), l26.
2O. Sterling, 278.
2l. Sterling 279.
22. Roberta Goren, The Soviet Union and Terrorism (London: George, Allen and Union), l38.
23. Sterling, 279-28O.
24. Bermudez, Joseph S. Terrorism, the North Korean Connection (New York: Taylor & Francis), l32.
25. Galia Golan, Gorbachev's "New Thinking" on Terrorism (New York: The Center for Strategic and International Studies), 88.
26. Golan, 89.
27. Bruce George and Timothy Watson, "Combating International Terrorism After l992" in European Terrorism Today & Tomorrow (New York: MacMillan Publishing), l9O.
28. Patrick Seale, Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire (New York: Random House), 6-24.
29. Sterling, 26l-264.
3O. Michael Eisenstadt, "Syria and the Terrorist Connection," Jane's Intelligence Review, January l993, 33.
3l. Eisenstadt, 35.
32. Eisenstadt, 35.
33. Tim Ripley, "The PKK-Another Look at the Middle East's Shining Path," Jane's intelligence Review, August l993, 372.
34. "Intelligence Services Report Greece Supporting PKK", Berlin Die Welt, 2 December l994, l. Translated by Foreign Broadcast Information Service: JPRS Report l2 December l994, (JPRS-TOT-94-O48-L).
35. John M. Musacchio and Arnon Rozen, "Fundamentalist Fervor: Islamic Terrorism in the 8O's," Security Management, November l988, 56.
36. Paul Wilkinson, "Terrorism, Iran and the Gulf Region," Jane's Intelligence Review, May l992, 226.
37. Wilkinson (Iran), 224.
38. Wilkinson (Iran), 226.
39. "Israeli Police Find Faxes Calling for Attacks", Tel Aviv Yedi Ot Aharonot, 8 September l994, l and l7. Translated by Foreign Broadcast Information Services: JPRS Report l5 September l994 (JPRS-TOT-94-O3 8-l).
4O. Magnus Ranstorp, "Hezbollah' s Future?- Part l," Jane 's Intelligence Review, February l995, 34.
4l. Anthony Davis, "Foreign Combatants in Afghanistan," Jane's Intelligence Review, July l993, 327.
42. Davis, 328.
43 . Davis, 33l.
44. "'Growing Activity' at 'Islamic Extremists' Training Camps", Paris AL- WATAN AL ARABI, 6 January l995, 6. Translated by Foreign Broadcast Information Service: JPRS Report l9 January l995 (JPRS TOT-95-OOl-L).
45. James Bruce, "Arab Veterans of the Afghan War," Jane's Intelligence Review, April l995, l76.
46. "Sudan's Secret training Camps," The Economist, lO September l992, 2-3.
47. "Turning Informer," New York Times, !9 February l995.
48. "Deputy Speaker Defects, Details Foreign Terrorist Training", Cairo AL AHRAM, l7 January l994, Translated by Foreign Broadcast Information Service: JPRS Report 3l January l994 (JPRS-TOT-94- OO4-L).
49. James Wylie, "Sudan-The Middle East's Latest Rogue State," Jane's intelligence Review, July l992, 3ll.
5O. "Patterns of Global Terrorism," Department of State, l993, 25.
5l. Foreign Report, The Economist, l2 November l992.
52. Foreign Report, The Economist, 3O April l992, 4.
53. Ahmed Rashid, "March of the Militants," Far Eastern Economic Review, 9 March l995, l8.
54. Rigoberto Tiglao, "To Fight or Not to Fight," Far Eastern Economic Review, 9 March l995, 2l.
55. Thomas Bedford Jones Frank, "Sendero Luminoso: Origins, Outlooks and Implications. Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, California, June l986, 53.
56. "Colombia's Other Gangsters," The Economist, 25 March l995, 48.
57. Robert A. Friedlander, Documents of International and Local Control Volume VI Global Terrorism in the Dangerous Decade (London, Rome, New York: Oceana Publications Incorporated), 299, 3lO.
58. Paul Wilkinson, "Terrorism in Europe-Retrospect and Prospect," Jane's The World In Conflict, 59.
59. Christopher Dobson and Ronald Payne, The Never Ending War- Terrorism in the 8O's (New York: Facts on File Publications), l8O.
6O. Dobson and Payne (Never Ending War), l82.
6l. Dobson and Payne (Never Ending War), l85.
62. Dobson and Payne (The Terrorists), 75.
64. Roberta Goren, The Soviet Union and Terrorism (London, Boston, Sydney: George, Allen & Urwin), l39.
65. Jeffery D. Simon, The Terrorist Trap. America 's Experience With Terrorism (Bloomington& Indianapolis: Indiana University Press), 358.
66. Dobson and Payne (Never Ending War), l82
67. Judith Miller, "Faces of Fundamentalism: Hassan al Turabi and Muhammed Fadlallah," Foreign Affairs, November/December l994, l42.
68. John Durnton, "Basques Find Inspiration as I.R.A. Talks of Peace," New York Times, l6 April l995, 6.
69. Friedlander, 3O9.
7O. "Colombia's Other Gangsters", The Economist, 25 March l995, 48.
7l. Linda Robinson, "No Holds Barred", U.S. News & World Report, 28 September l992, 49.
72. "Counterterror Course for Beginners", Counterterrorism & Security, Winter l989-l99O, 2l.
73. Stephen E. Arthurs, Terrorism: A Reference Handbook (Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO Inc.),78.
74. Brent L. Smith, Terrorism in America Pipe Bombs and Pipe Dreams, (Albany: State University of New York Press), 8O.
Adams, James. The Financing of Terror. New York: Simon & Schuster, l986.
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Arthurs, Stephen E. Terrorism: A Reference Handbook. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO Inc. l992.
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Borowiec, Andrew. "Jihad's Hit List: Egypt, Algeria." Washington Times, 27 November l993.
Bruce, James. "Arab Veterans of the Afghan War." Jane's intelligence Review, April l995, l75-l79.
Central Intelligence Agency. "South Asia." l:3,86O,OOO.
Cetron, Marvin J. and Owen Davies. "The Future Face of Terrorism." The Futurist, November-December l994, lO-l5.
Chesnoff, Richard Z. "He Just Keeps on Ticking." U.S. News and World Report, 2l February l994, 55-56.
Clutterbuck, Richard. Terrorism and Guerrilla Warfare: Forecasts and Remedies. London and New York: Routledge, l99O.
Connor, Michael. Terrorism, its Goals, its Targets, its Methods. Boulder: Paladin Press, l987.
Darnton, John. "Basques Find Inspiration as I.R.A. Talks of Peace." New York Times, l6 April l995, 6.
Davis, Anthony. "Foreign Combatants in Afghanistan." Jane's intelligence Review, July l993, 327-33l.
Department of State. Patterns of Global Terrorism, l993. Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism. Department of State Publication lOl36. Released in April l994.
"Deputy Speaker Defects,Details Foreign Terrorist Training", Cairo AL AHRAM (l7 January l994). Translated by Foreign Broadcast Information Service: JPRS Report 3l January l994 (JPRS-TOT-94- OO4-L).
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Eisenstadt, Michael. "Syria and the terrorist Connection." Jane's Intelligence Review. January l993, 33-35.
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Flynn, Kevin and Gary Gearhardt. The Silent Brotherhood. Inside America's Racist Underground. New York: The Free Press, l989.
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Frank, Thomas Bedford Jones. Sendero Luminoso: Origens, Outlooks, and Implications. Naval Postgraduate School, June l986.
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"Intelligence Services Report Greece Supporting PKK" Berlin DIE WELT (2 December l994), l. Translation by Foreign Broadcast Information Service: JPRS Report l2 December l994 (JPRS-TOT-94-O48-L).
"Iran Takes Aim at Tajikistan." Foreign Report, l2 November l992, 4-5.
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Miller, Judith. "Faces of Fundamentalism: Hassan al-Turabi and Muhammed Fadlallah." Foreign Affairs, November/December l994, l23-l42.
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